A strategic intelligence estimate of the current socio-political and economic environment: South Africa

A strategic report by the Centre for Risk Analysis at the IRR on how the leadership race in the African National Congress (ANC) is likely to conclude and what the long-term implications for South Africa and the economy will be.

In this report, the IRR cautions readers not to see the current race as a zero-sum-game for South Africa and not to see December 2017 (the time of the ANC’s 54th National Conference) as a zero-sum-date for the country. Mainstream analysis is overly simplistic in reducing the leadership race to such binary-outcomes.

This report was drafted for and solely released to the intended beneficiaries of top-tier clients on 12 October 2017. It may not be circulated to third parties.

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