What leverage does the DA have in the GNU?: Katzenellenbogen - Biznews

The overriding reason for the DA to be in the government of national unity (GNU) is to keep the radical comrade parties out of the arrangement. Participation in the GNU by either the Economic Freedom Fighters or the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MK) is likely to result in the wrecking of the economy.

The DA’s primary reason for joining the Government of National Unity (GNU) is to exclude radical parties like the Economic Freedom Fighters and the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party. This decision aims to prevent economic instability. President Cyril Ramaphosa prefers the DA as a partner, ensuring a stable coalition. While the DA holds some leverage through ministerial positions, it faces challenges in advancing its policies amid the ANC’s dominant agenda.

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen

President Cyril Ramaphosa probably far prefers the DA as a partner to either of the ANC’s troublesome fellow comrade parties. By good fortune, the EFF and MK declined the invitation from Ramaphosa to join the GNU.

That makes the GNU a stable arrangement, but also one in which the DA dares not exit, as that could lead to the inclusion of either of the comrade parties, which would give the ANC a majority.

So DA Federal Chair Helen Zille was correct in saying in a Sunday Times interview last week that “the GNU is very stable at this point.”

“The reason is that people realise what the alternative is. It’s very seldom that you can say there is no alternative. We know that if we want to save South Africa at the moment, there is no alternative,” she told the paper.

“But we’ve got leverage because if we go out, the government falls. But you don’t play that card lightly, because you can only play [it] once,” Zille said.

The ANC is well aware that the DA would only pull out in an extreme case. That means the DA has very little direct leverage over the ANC in the GNU.

Even in this coalition, the ANC can do pretty much what it desires in extending state control, maintaining patronage, and advancing toward its nirvana of the National Democratic Revolution. That nirvana is not too different from that of the populist radical parties that are not part of the coalition. Should the ANC test the limits, the DA would have to pull out.

DA direct leverage, insofar as it exists in this government, is limited to the ministerial portfolios it holds – Agriculture, Home Affairs, Public Works and Environment, Forestry and Fisheries. Its Deputy Ministers in other departments will be unable to fully advance DA policies.

The DA has spoken out against empowerment policies, but it cannot stop these, even in the departments where it is supposedly the boss.

All the signs are that the ANC will double down on its agenda. It is in a good position to advance Black Economic Empowerment, increase cadre deployment under the guise of transformation, and implement the National Health Insurance scheme.

Last month, Ramaphosa signed into law the Public Procurement Act, which the ANC puts across as a means to ensure better control and consistency in purchasing by the government. That Act, once implemented, will entrench racial preferences, reduce competition for public sector contracts and mean the government will have to buy at prices that are not market-related.

The President has the legal right to sign bills that are put before him, even if they were passed by Parliament before the May 29th election. But signing bills passed by the old Parliament is not within the spirit of the Statement of Intent to which the parties in the GNU agreed. Clearly the DA was without leverage to stop the President signing this bill.

To show the radicals in its ranks that it remains ideologically committed, the ANC is likely to implement aspects of the National Health Insurance scheme. Challenging the National Health Insurance (NHI) Act in the courts could take a long time and might not completely undo the damage this does to our health system. In his speech opening Parliament, the President said there would be talks with opponents of the NHI to clarify certain aspects. Clearly there is no chance that the ANC will scrap the Act.

The DA will have to furiously oppose implementation, as it represents many middle-class voters who have private health insurance.

The Basic Education Laws Amendment (BELA) Bill has not yet been signed by the President, but would mean greater control by the government over schools and less power for school governing bodies. Many Afrikaans speakers fear that civil servants will force Afrikaans-medium schools to adopt English as the teaching language. The Bill has hit a raw nerve, and could see mass opposition from Afrikaans communities across the country.

The DA is duty-bound to put up a good fight to stop implementation of the NHI and the BELA bill. And the ANC has to realise that it might be politically worthwhile for it to compromise, even though it rules the GNU. In terms of policy, the DA is getting very little from its GNU participation. No privatisation is planned and the ANC is doubling down on policies that cannot bring about growth. The DA should be close to warning the ANC about this.

One reason for the DA’s lack of real leverage is that our system of government allows the President to exert immense power. While Parliament elects the President and there is, in theory, joint cabinet responsibility for decisions, our government is still heavily dominated by the power of the Presidency. It is the President who hires and fires ministers and sets the agenda for the government.

While it may lack direct leverage, the DA still has forms of intangible leverage.

Although the GNU is in its early days, ANC ministers are already alarmed that the DA ministers are making them look incompetent by running their own departments well.

Another form of leverage that the DA has is over investor sentiment. The DA presence in the GNU certainly lifted investor sentiment, partially as a result of the extreme relief that there would not be a ‘comrade’ coalition.

Along with the absence of load shedding for more than four months and, up until last week, signs of a strengthening international economy, the DA presence in the GNU has been highly positive for us. Our government bonds and currency strengthened on the news of the GNU and many investors have taken another look at the country. The Bureau of Economic Research at Stellenbosch University revised its growth forecast for next year to 2.2 percent in contrast to the International Monetary Fund’s earlier prediction of 1.2 percent.

It must still be tested whether this improved sentiment will be maintained in the more jittery international environment, with fears of a US recession and a wider war in the Middle East. But if the DA left the GNU, sentiment would rapidly sink.

The threat of leaving the GNU is the DA’s ultimate source of leverage. The DA should only threaten to exit if the ANC tests the extreme limits with its policies. If the ANC pursues radical economy-wrecking policies, this would have the same effect as having the two other comrade parties in the Cabinet.

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is a Johannesburg-based freelance journalist

https://www.biznews.com/leadership/2024/08/07/leverage-da-gnu-katzenellenbogen

This article was first published on the Daily Friend.