GNU cracks: Tensions rise between ANC and DA – Jonathan Katzenellenbogen - Biznews
Jonathan Katzenellenbogen
The government of national unity (GNU) is heading for a breakup, although this is not about to happen soon.
It’s highly unlikely that DA ministers will storm out of the Cabinet lekgotla discussion on the medium-term way forward and exit the GNU later today. For the moment, the voters probably still like the idea of a GNU and big business will bring pressure to bear for it to survive.
But we will see more public rows between the DA and the ANC.
So far, the DA has declared a dispute under the Statement of Intent agreement signed by all parties in the GNU and asked for a “reset” in relations with the ANC. The point of immediate dispute is the President’s signing the expropriation without compensation bill against the advice of the DA Public Works Minister, Dean MacPherson that it is unconstitutional.
The DA is also furious about the ANC’s failure to consult with them on the big policy issues, including the National Health Insurance Project.
So how can a “reset” demanded by the DA actually take place. John Steenhuisen, the DA leader, says this is not an ultimatum and no walkout has been threatened. That means no “red line” from the DA yet.
The ANC cannot scrap the expropriation act and back track on the other major area of dispute, the National Health Insurance Project (NHI) So the two parties may have to fudge this one and say they will talk and consult more often.
Surprise
Cyril Ramaphosa’s signing of the expropriation bill was long in coming, but was a surprise and bizarre. The President had been in Davos speaking to international business titans earlier in the week. And then he returns home and signs a bill that will allow seizure of business property with no payment.
The bill was sent to him to sign by Parliament in March last year, before the election at the end of May. His intention may have been to show the ANC Lekgotla over the past weekend that he was not taking instructions from the DA in the GNU and the party remains committed to the National Democratic Revolution. He may have also been placating his challengers in the party who don’t want a GNU with the DA.
The expropriation bill is a direct challenge to the DA and pushes the country into precarious economy wrecking territory. While his assent is legal, signing bills that were passed before the elections and by another Parliament, is certainly not within the spirit of a coalition arrangement.
There are no convincing arguments that the DA should just calm down on this one and look to the greater good of the GNU in keeping the radical parties out of government. Property expropriation without compensation is a well-worn path to poverty and heavy state interference.
The DA just can’t cut and run from the GNU even if it wanted to do so. It will have to prepare the ground for an exit over the next year or so. The reality is that it is likely to be the same voters who were keen on the GNU that will punish the party for staying in. There is a hard and fast rule that minority parties often get punished for being part of a governing coalition.
Hindsight
With hindsight, the unfolding collapse of the GNU is due to the DA’s failure to insist on basic conditions before it joined the coalition. The GNU negotiations were rushed and business and the commentariat, including myself, were saying this was all best for the country.
As a minimum condition of entry into the GNU, the DA should have insisted on a clause in the Statement of Intent under which bills passed before the election, but not yet signed, could not now be given Presidential assent. That would have prevented the expropriation bill from being signed into law, at least for the time being.
If the DA does not get the “reset” it wants, it could remain in the Cabinet for the time being, but vote against measures with which it disagrees. But at some stage it will be have to be a case of in our out of the GNU
By staying in the Cabinet, the DA keeps uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) out and also slows down the implementation of two important Acts – the Expropriation Act and BELA. For the time being, DA ministers are in the Public Works post and Basic Education. The President could always get rid of the DA problem with a reshuffle.
At the same time its voters will want to see that it played a role in keeping MK out. So the DA strategy will have to be flexible and support the ANC on an issue by issue basis, if possible.
New Trump world
With SA on Trump’s list of countries that are at best unfriendly, the ANC doing everything it can to preserve the GNU as a sign of moderation would be a good idea.
At stake in the survival of the GNU is whether the DA and moderates in the ANC can find each other and create the core of ruling coalitions into the future. The hope is that moderates in South African politics can come together, keep out the radicals and pursue pragmatic policies to achieve growth. The tension between the ANC and DA shows that we are a long way off and there may not be too many powerful moderates in the ANC anymore.
At least for the time being, this might be a misplaced hope for South African politics. There is no sign of a large body in the ANC that is capable of playing this sort of moderate pragmatic role just yet. And while they have to get back some of the at least 14 percent of the vote from MK this will be very difficult. The ANC does not take the lessons of our failing economy as a reason to change. It would rather stick to what it knows.
Without this critical large moderate centre there is not much hope for growth.
Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is a Johannesburg-based freelance journalist. His articles have appeared on DefenceWeb, Politicsweb, as well as in a number of overseas publications. Katzenellenbogen has also worked on Business Day and as a TV and radio reporter and newsreader. He has a Master’s degree in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management
This article was first published on the Daily Friend.